ASML Lifts Its 2026 Floor and Warns It Cannot Build Enough Machines for 2027 and 2028

ASML Holding raised the bottom of its 2026 sales forecast on Wednesday and said it cannot build enough machines to meet chipmakers' demand in 2027 or 2028.

The Dutch lithography maker now expects 2026 net sales of €44bn–€45bn, against €43bn–€45bn previously, and a gross margin of about 56%, up from a prior range of 54% to 56%. It guided fourth-quarter sales to €14.2bn–€15.2bn at about 57%.

System sales rose to €8.4bn in the third quarter from €6.6bn in the second. EUV accounted for 49% of system sales, down from 57%, while immersion DUV (ArFi) rose to 39% from 29%, according to ASML's results presentation. That puts EUV system sales at about €4.1bn (Rackline calculation). ASML recognized 17 EUV systems, against 16 in the second quarter, and 40 ArFi systems, up from 23. Lithography units sold rose to 121 from 91.

By end use, logic took 54% of system sales and memory 46%. Memory system sales for the first nine months totaled €10.3bn, already above the €8.4bn for all of 2025. Logic reached €11.0bn, against €16.1bn for 2025.

China's share of system sales rose to 23% in the third quarter from 14% in the second. Taiwan took 32%, South Korea 31% and the U.S. 13%, measured by ship-to location.

The half-year figures, which cover total net sales by customer location, show China's weight had been falling before that. China accounted for €2.88bn of ASML's €18.09bn in first-half sales, about 16%, down from about 24% a year earlier (Rackline calculation). South Korea was the largest region in the half, at €7.09bn.

Third-quarter sales were €11.7bn, toward the high end of guidance. Net income was €5.0bn. Gross margin of 57.5% beat guidance, lifted by €3.3bn of installed-base sales as customers bought productivity upgrades for tools already in their fabs.

Capacity was the bigger message. "Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments," Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said in the results release. "In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030."

Fouquet said supply as currently planned will not fully meet demand in either 2027 or 2028. ASML already plans to raise capacity for its low-NA EUV and DUV immersion tools by 30% in 2027 and had said it was considering a further 30% for 2028; it is now studying how to go beyond that. Productivity upgrades remain its way to add wafer output without new tools. For the fourth quarter, ASML guided installed-base sales to about €3.7bn within its total sales range. Third-quarter operating margin was 44.4%.

For the fourth quarter, ASML expects research and development costs of about €1.2bn and selling, general and administrative costs of about €0.4bn. Free cash flow in the third quarter was €11.4bn, and the company bought back about €4.1bn of shares.

It was the third change to the 2026 outlook this year, and all three were increases. ASML opened the year guiding to €34bn–€39bn and raised that to €36bn–€40bn in April and €43bn–€45bn in July. This time it lifted the low end and left the top at €45bn, narrowing the range with one quarter left.

ASML no longer reports bookings or backlog. Its last such figures, in its fourth-quarter 2025 results released in January, showed net bookings of €13.2bn for that quarter, €7.4bn of it EUV, and a backlog of €38.8bn at the end of 2025.

Fouquet's comments put the constraint in production capacity rather than orders: customers are asking about 2029 and 2030 slots while ASML says its planned supply will not fully meet 2027 and 2028 demand.

ASML did not say how far beyond 30% it might go for 2028, or what the extra capacity would cost.

ASML has set a Capital Markets Day for June 10, 2027, when it said it would update its longer-term views. That is the likely venue for a 2028 capacity figure and its cost.