Chips & SupplyUnited States
HBM4 Demand Holds Firm As Rubin Keeps 12 Layers
Samsung and SK hynix Are Set to Benefit as HBM4 Mass Production Expands While Counterpoint Says Demand Concerns Are Overstated
Analysis indicates that the 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) equipped in Nvidia’s next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator ‘Rubin’ will remain centered on 12-layer configurations. This suggests that concerns over slowing memory demand due to a reduction in HBM stacking layers are exaggerated.
As Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have begun mass production of HBM4, expanding demand for high-value-added memory is expected to support the earnings growth of the two companies.
On Oct. 8, market research firm Counterpoint Research announced the results of its internal review regarding the recently raised rumors of reduced HBM capacity, stating, “The concern about slowing memory demand is a misunderstanding.” The assessment is that confidence in memory demand growth has actually strengthened in October.
Some industry voices claimed that Nvidia requested major HBM suppliers to lower the number of stacked layers from the existing 12 to 8. This prompted forecasts that if HBM capacity decreases, the production of commodity DRAM will increase, which could lead to a drop in memory prices.
However, Counterpoint Research analyzed that most products equipped with Rubin are actually converging toward a 12-layer configuration.
This is because securing the memory bandwidth and capacity necessary for data processing is more important than cost reduction in AI computing. The firm explained that, contrary to concerns, 4-layer products have not been observed in the ASIC market either.
Counterpoint Research viewed that if HBM demand is maintained, the supply shortage of commodity DRAM is also highly likely to continue. HBM production requires more than three times the production capacity of commodity DRAM. Expanding HBM production restricts commodity DRAM supply, creating a structure that supports memory prices.
In its preliminary third-quarter earnings released on Oct. 8, Samsung Electronics announced that it recorded 195 trillion won (about $145 billion) in revenue and 107.4 trillion won in operating profit. These figures represent increases of 126.6% and 782.5%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. It is the first time a domestic company’s quarterly operating profit has exceeded 100 trillion won.
Counterpoint Research identified exchange rates as the reason there was no massive earnings surprise recently seen in semiconductor companies, despite the record-high performance. The firm explained that because Samsung Electronics has a high share of dollar-denominated revenue, a sharp drop in the dollar-won exchange rate imposes a burden of reduced won-converted profits.
Counterpoint Research stated, “The concern about slowing memory demand is a misunderstanding,” and forecast, “There is a possibility that Samsung Electronics’ record-high performance will not end as a one-time event.”