Marvell’s Investor Day raises the fiscal 2028 bar and sketches a $70bn–$90bn 2031 path

Marvell Technology’s Oct. 6 Investor Day in New York did more than refresh a slide deck: it reset how the company wants infrastructure investors to underwrite the next several years of data-center silicon. Management lifted the fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion from roughly $18 billion on the August call — a projected gain of about 67% on fiscal 2027 — and said data-center revenue should grow about 80% to roughly $18 billion. The fiscal 2029 custom-silicon target moved to more than $12 billion from more than $10 billion, while fiscal 2027’s about-$12 billion frame and the third-quarter guide of $3.150 billion plus or minus 5% in revenue and $1.10 plus or minus $0.05 in non-GAAP EPS were left alone.

The longer-horizon piece is new. Marvell set a fiscal 2031 revenue range of $70 billion to $90 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share of more than $30 at the midpoint, and raised the long-term non-GAAP operating-margin target to 44%–46% from 38%–40%. Gross margin was restated as a 56%–59% range that depends on mix between lower-margin custom work and higher-margin merchant connectivity. Chief Financial Officer Dan Durn tied the earnings power to operating expenses growing at roughly half the rate of revenue, a 15% tax rate, free-cash-flow margins above 36% over time, and returning more than half of free cash flow on average.

Chief Executive Matt Murphy said the extra $2 billion in fiscal 2028 comes from faster scale-out optics, growing scale-up optics, and switching — the same drivers behind the August raise. Scale-up optics still contribute virtually no revenue today, with multi-hundred million dollars expected to start in fiscal 2028. Scale-out Ethernet switching is doubling this year and is expected to more than double again to well over $1 billion in fiscal 2028 as the 51.2-terabit part finishes its first full production year. None of the Investor Day targets appear as line items in an SEC filing; Marvell did not file an 8-K for the event.

For readers tracking AI networking and custom silicon, the near-term watch is whether the unchanged third-quarter guide and fiscal 2027 frame still hold as the company converts optics and switching commentary into reported data-center growth, and how much of the fiscal 2031 custom envelope is assumed to come from accelerator-attach programs versus full custom accelerators. The next print, for the quarter ending Oct. 31, is still expected around early December.